Tour de France 2023: Passy - Combloux

 

Route Description: The 16th stage was an individual time trial from Passy to Combloux over 22.4 km. In the individual time trial every rider will depart in reverse order of the general classification standing, the overall standings or the competition for the yellow jersey, and ride the entire route on their own. This means that the final rider out of the start is the yellow jersey. If they pass another or get passed this must be done with separation so as to avoid drafting off the rider being passed. The route left Passy and climbed the Cote de la Cascade de Coeur before passing the first time check at Passy Chef-Lieu 7.1 km into the stage. This was followed by a descent into the town of Sallanches which hosted the 1989 World Championships won by the '89 Tour de France champion American Greg Lemond. A relatively flat section of road existed between Sallanches and Domancy, where the second time check existed at 16.1 km, followed by the climb of the Category 2 Cote de Domancy. At the top of the Cote de Domancy was the third and final time check. From the final time check were 3.5 km of further climbing to the finish line at Combloux.

Race Summary and Analysis: I won't bore you with all the changes in the lead over the day. I will instead focus on the major lead changes and the yellow jersey competition. I should state that American Matteo Jorgenson (Movistar) did not start the stage after the rest day. Remi Cavagna (Soudal-Quickstep), the French national time trial champion, would set the time at the finish line that would hold for over two hours as other riders could not match his pace. Eventually Wout Van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) would set a faster time while wearing the Belgian national time trial champion jersey. His time would hold until the final two riders crossed the line. A succession of riders in the top 10 would fail to beat Van Aert's time as they all rode up to the finish line in Combloux. 

Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Emirates) wearing the white jersey left the starting blocks before Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma) sepearated by a mere 10 seconds. Both riders started out going at very fast paces. Pogacar would set the fastest time at the first time check only to have Vingegaard surpass his time by 16 seconds. At the second time check Vingegaard's lead would be 30 seconds. Over the first two thirds of the course Vingegaard had been going faster than Pogacar, and both of them were clearly the class of the field.

The key question of the day was whether to switch to the road bike from the time trial bike for the climb. Time trial bicycles are heavier than the bicycles used on mountain stages, but they are more aerodynamic. The risk of doing a bicycle change is the amount of time lost and getting a quick and efficient exchange of bicycles. Tadej Pogacar would change his bicycle at the foot of the Cote de Domancy costing him 10 seconds. Since at that point he was already approaching 30 seconds down at that moment his time loss immediately went up to 40 seconds. In contrast Vingegaard decided not to switch bicycles. He would then continue to decrease the distance between he and Pogacar while increasing his time gap advantage all the way to the finish line. Pogacar would set a new fastest time at the finish, and beat Van Aert by one minute and thirteen seconds. Unfortunately Vingegaard was following not far behind looking to set a new fastest time for the day and win the stage. At the finish line Vingegaard had beaten Pogacar by one minute thirty eight seconds and expanded his lead in the yellow jersey to one minute forty eight seconds. The tour is not yet finished as there are still at least two opportunities for Pogacar to reverse his deficit,  but the way the two have been riding neck and neck leads me to think this will be extremely difficult. The most likely chances will Stage 17 and Stage 19 which are a major alpine stage and an uphill finish respectively. One question that can be asked is whether Vingegaard may have put too much effort into today's stage and may suffer a significant loss on the next stage, but a short time trial like today more than likely is not a sizeable enough effort to leave Vingegaard out of energy. We should be in for some great racing for the rest of the race.